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   Wind  Energy Resources Potentials in Bangladesh :

 

 

Draft Final Report

PROMOTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND GREENHOUSE GAS ABATEMENT (PREGA)

Bangladesh

Solar-Wind- Diesel Hybrid
For Power Generation in Small
Towns and Villages

A Pre-Feasibility Study Report1

April 2005

1 Prepared by the PREGA National Technical Experts from Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abbreviations

 

 

1.         EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1-8

 

1.1       Introduction  1

1.2       Energy Situation and Government Policy  2

1.3       The Status of PV in Bangladesh  3  

1.4       Potential of Solar, Wind & Bio-mass Energy for Power Generation in  Small Towns & Villages in Bangladesh 3

1.5       Choice of Technology - a Solar-Wind-Diesel Hybrid System  4

1.6       Project Description  5

1.7        Project Cost and Emission Reduction  6

2.         INTRODUCTION 9-10

2.1       Background of the Project  9

3.1       Justification of the Project  10

3.         ENERGY SITUATION & GOVERNMENT POLICY 11-16

3.1       Sector Description  11

3.2       Present & Forecasted Energy Situation  11

3.3       Constraints and Issues  12

3.4       Government Policy & Strategy  14

3.5       Government Policy on Renewable Energy  15

3.6       Market for Electricity  16

4.         AVAILABILITY OF SOLAR & WIND ENERGY IN BANGLADESH  16-19

4.1        Availability of Solar and Wind Energy for Power Generation in Bangladesh  16

4.2        Critical Aspects of Availability of Economic Wind Speeds in Bangladesh   18

4.3        Critical Aspects of Availability of Solar Energy in Bangladesh  19

5.         TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS, CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGY FOR  POWER SUPPLY TO SMALL TOWNS AND VILLAGES 19-
5.1        Technology Screening  19

5.2        Potential of Solar, Wind & Bio-mass Energy for Power Generation in   Small Towns & Villages in Bangladesh

5.3       Choice of Technology - Wind-PV-Diesel Hybrid System  20

5.4        The System Reliability of REHPPs  23

6.         PROJECT DESCRIPTION 23-28

6.1        Project Goal  23

6.2       Project Objectives  23

6.3       Poverty Reduction through the Project  24

6.4 Technology Transfer

6.5 Project Location

6.6 Project Partners

6.7 Project Outputs

6.8 Possible Institutional Ways to Cover Project Risks 25

6.9 Likely Fiscal Incentives for the Project 26

6.10 Possible Financing Arrangements of the Project 26

6.11 Facilitating Agencies of the Project 26

6.12 Likely Basis of Tariff Structure Determination 27

6.13 Possible Ways to Selection of Firm in the Project 27

7. EMISSION REDUCTION, MONITORING & VERIFICATION PLAN  28-40

7.1 Baseline of Electricity Generation in Bangladesh 28

7.2 Baseline of GHG emission connected with the project 30

7.3 The Proposed Project 32

7.4 Factors impacting the Baseline 35

7.5 Crediting Period 36

7.6 Project Boundaries & System Boundaries 36

7.7 Project Additionality 36

7.8 Indirect Emission Effects 36

7.9 Additional Environment & Social Benefits 36

7.10 Monitoring & Verification Plan-Monitoring of Project Performance 38

8. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE PROJECT 40-42

8.1 Project Cost (Estimated) 40

8.2 Financial Analysis. 41

 

9. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 42

10. STAKEHOLDERS’ MEETING 43

 

11. MAJOR FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 44-45

REFERENCES 46

     List of Tables

Table 1: List of Power Plant installed since 1997 

Table 2: Gross Peak Growth Forecast

Table 3: Installed, Actual Production and Firm Production Capacity,  Peak Demand and Shortfall

Table 4: System Loss of Electricity Organizations

Table 5: Accounts Receivable of BPDB and DESA (in billion Tk)

Table 6: Progress of installed capacity of power plant in Bangladesh  over the period 1991/92 – 2002/03

Table 7:

Projection of total power generation and that based on oil up to 2020 

 

Table 8:

Yearly and cumulative production of CO2 in the absence

 

of the project activity

 

Table 9:

Cumulative production of CO2 in the presence of the project activity

 

Table 10: Cumulative reduction of CO2 in the presence 

 

of the project activity

 

Table 11: Project Benefits

 

List of Figures

 

Figure 1:

Progress of power plant installation in Bangladesh over 91/92-2001/02 

 

and projection up to 2019

 

Figure 2:

Projection of total power generation (series 1) and 

 

that based on oil (series 2)

 

Figure 3:

Cumulative production of CO2 in the absence (series 1) and 

 

in the presence (series 2) of the project activity

 

Figure 4:

Cumulative reduction of CO2 over the project period in the

 

presence of the project activity

 

List of Flowchart

 

Flowchart – 1: Flowchart with Calculation for Yearly GHG (CO2) Release 

 

Attendant on Production of 476 MWh of Electricity Based on diesel Oil 

 

(without Project Activity)

 

Flowchart – 2: Flowchart with Calculation for Yearly GHG (CO2) Release 

 

Attendant on Production of 476 MWh with 30% backup from diesel oil 

 

(with the Project Activity)

 

List of Drawing

 

Drawing 1: Showing the elevation of the conceptual solar-wind-Diesel-hybrid Plant

 

List of Map

 

Map 1:

Showing the proposed location of the plant

 

List of Press Cutting

 

Press Cutting – 1

 

Press Cutting – 2

 

Press Cutting – 3

 

Exchange Rate:

 

 

A CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATE OF 58.5 TAKA = 1US $ (FOR 2004) HAS BEEN USED FOR CORRECT VALUATION AT A LATER DATE.

 

Abbreviations

ARMCO - Associated Resources Management Co. ADB - Asian Development Bank Bbl - Barrel BAEC - Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission BCAS - Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies BOO - Built-Owned-Operated BOOT - Built-Owned-Operated and Transferred BPDB - Bangladesh Power Development Board BREMADCO Bangladesh Renewable Energy Development & Management Co. CDM - Clean Development Mechanism CF - Conversion Factor DESCO - Dhaka Electric Supply Company DESA - Dhaka Electric Supply Authority DP - Development Partner EPA - Bangladesh Environmental Protection Act of 1995 FBT - Fast Bangladesh Technologies FIRR - Financial Internal Rate of Returns GEF - Global Environment Facility GOB - Government of Bangladesh GS - Grameen Shakti GTZ - German Technical Cooperation GWh - Gigawatt hour IDCOL - Infrastructure Development Co. Ltd. IFI - International Financing Institution IPP - Independent Power Producer kg - Kilogram KVA - Killovolt Amp kWh - Kilowatt Hour LGED - Local Government Engineering Department LRMC - Long Run Marginal Cost m3 - Cubic Metre MMCFD - Million cubit feet per day MOEF - Ministry of Environment and Forest MPEMR - Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources MW - Megawatt NEP - National Energy Policy NG - Natural Gas NGO - Non-Government Organization NLDC - National Load Dispatch Centre ODA - Overseas Development Assistance O&M - Operation & Maintenance PBS - Palli Bidyut Samiti PGCB - Power Grid Company of Bangladesh PPA - Power Purchase Agreement PSC - Production Sharing Contract PSMP - Power System Master Plan PSRB - Power Sector Reforms in Bangladesh RAPS - Remote area power system REB - Rural Electrification Board R&D - Research and Development REHPP - Renewable Energy Hybrid Power Plants RET - Renewable energy technology RFP - Request for Proposal RPC - Rural Power Company SBU - Strategic Business Unit SERF - Shadow Exchange Rate Factor TCF - Trillion cubit feet TJ - Terajoule Tk. - Taka (Bangladesh) TWh - Terawatthour USA - United States of America US$ - United States Dollar VAT - Value Added Tax WB - World Bank WEST - Wind energy study project

1.             Executive Summary

2.            1.1 Introduction

 

The country is blessed with substantial quantities of relatively clean fossil fuel - natural gas (NG) as its primary energy. Its total proven and possible reserves being estimated at about 16.3 trillion cubic feet (TCF) (Country Study Report), although as estimated by the US Geological Survey (USGS), could be much higher (32 TCF and above). With a continuous increase of the demand for NG, which currently stands at about 1.4 billion cubic feet per day, the NG reserves are being consumed fast and unless new gas reserves are discovered through continuous national exploration activities, the currently proven gas reserves of the country may face a total depletion in about next 20 years time. Although close to about 90% of Bangladesh’s indigenous NG is used for producing electric power, about 30% of its population has gained access to electricity. 

Bangladesh, at the same time, is a sun-rich country with long sunshine hours, being situated in the tropics. The estimates are indicative of a total availability of solar energy of about 1 x 1021J per year (Country Study Report). Even a fraction of this energy is more than the total energy currently used in Bangladesh. As regards the availability of wind energy, preliminary wind measurement studies, sponsored by international agencies, like GTZ and ODA have indicated the positive potentiality of setting up wind turbines in the coastal belts and the offshore islands.

Unfortunately, except a few low-profile and uncoordinated national efforts by the Rural Electrification Board (REB), Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), NGOs, like Grameen Shakti, BRAC and some risk-taking private companies (Rahimafrooz, Micro Electronics, First Bangladesh Technologies Ltd. and others) the country yet lacks a proactive program with concerted efforts and a high degree of seriousness at Government levels to diversify its sources for “clean and sustainable energy sources of tomorrow” - the Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs), to produce and supply electricity.

Being encouraged by a French Government funded 62 kW Solar PV Pilot project, set up and commissioned in 1995/96, which provided PV electricity service to about 800 consumers in 4 river islands of Narsingdi, the local NGOs and the private sector gained confidence in the technical feasibility and social acceptability of renewable energy projects under the field conditions of Bangladesh. Today, NGOs like Grameen Shakti alone have disseminated about 14,000 Solar Home Systems (SHS), being supported by a ‘capital buy-down’ support fund, provided by IDA/GEF through Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) of Bangladesh, under a 50,000 SHS Programme. The REB is also launching a program to implement a 16,000 SHS Programme, funded by the World Bank.

 

In the wind energy sector and also in the area of combining the advantages of diversified sources, like wind, solar, fossil fuel/bio-mass to make a more reliable and also a cost-effective RE-Hybrid System, almost no work has been done so far in Bangladesh, excepting a few small-scale (non-commercial) trials with a few PV panels and less wind turbine of less than 400 W (Battery charging-type) capacity.

This pre-feasibility study on “Solar-Wind-Diesel Hybrid System for Power Generation for Small Towns and Villages” has been conducted, based on a selection out of ten initially identified projects through screening of relevant criteria (Country Study Report) by the Asian Development Bank under its programme for “Promotion of Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and GHG Abatement Project (PREGA) Operating Procedures”.

 

 

 

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Last Updated February 06, 2009