Role of IPCC in Addressing Climate Change in Bangladesh : www.reein.org

National Exhibition and Seminar (Title : Climate Change Mitigation : Role of Renewables) on Renewable Energy . Dhaka, Bangladesh, 24-25 March, 2008

Role of IPCC in Addressing Climate Change

Dr. Atiq Rahman

Executive Director, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Visiting Professor, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University and Harvard University, Mass USA

Chairman, Climate Action Network South Asia

24 March 2008

University of Dhaka

Establishment of IPCC

n Increasing scientific evidence coupled with growing public concern pushed climate change onto the higher political agenda in the mid-1980s;

n UN General Assembly adopted resolution 43/53 of 6 December 1988 on the “Protection of the Global Climate for Present and Future Generation of Mankind”;

n World Meteorological Organization (WMO) establish the IPCC;

n UN General Assembly established an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) for negotiating a framework convention on climate change in 1990;

n The INC adopted by consensus the UNFCCC on 9 May 1992. The convention was opened for signature at the UNCED.

Institutional Arrangement UN General Assembly, UNEP, WMO IPCC and UNFCCC

Institutional Arrangement of UNFCCC And Other Bodies

Institutional Arrangement
UN General Assembly, UNEP, WMO
IPCC and UNFCCC

Institutional Arrangement of UNFCCC And Other Bodies

Historical Concentration of CO2

The best estimate is that the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 (+/- 0.2) OC in last 100 years

Major Greenhouse Gas and Global Warming Potential

Major GHG Global Warming Potential

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1

Methane (CH4) 24

Nitrous oxide (N2O) 310

(burning fossil fuels and the manufacture of fertilizer)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 1300-11,700

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 6500-9200

(by-product of aluminum smelting and uranium enrichment)

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900

(used in heavy industry to insulate high-voltage equipment and to assist in the manufacturing of cable-cooling systems)

Sources of GHGs

Energy Sector

• Energy Industry

• Manufacturing Industries and Construction

• Transport

• Residential Sector

• Commercial

• Agriculture

Industrial processes

• Mineral products

• Chemical industry

• Metal production

• Production of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride

• Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride

Agriculture Sector

• Enteric fermentation

• Manure management

• Rice cultivation

• Agricultural soils

• Prescribed burning of savannas

• Field burning of agricultural residues

Waste

• Solid waste disposal on land

• Wastewater handling

• Waste incineration

Landuse Change and Forestry

• Conversion of Land

• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

Evolution of Scientific Assessment

Najam et al.,(2003)

Climate Change: Mitigation and adaptation

Observed Rate of Sea Level Rise

Sources of Sea Level Rise	Rate of sea level rise (mm per year)
Sources of Sea Level Rise	1961-2003	1993-2003
Thermal Expansion	0.42 ± 0.12	1.6 ± 0.5
Glaciers and ice caps	0.50 ± 0.18	0.77 ± 0.22
Greenland and Ice Sheet	0.05 ± 0.12	0.21 ± 0.07
Antarctic Ice Sheet	0.14 ± 0.41	0.21 ± 0.35
Sum of individual climate contributions to sea level rise	1.1 ± 0.5	2.8 ± 0.7
Observed total sea level rise	1.8 ± 0.5	3.1 ± 0.7
Difference (observed minus sum of estimated climate contribution)	0.7 ± 0.7	0.3 ± 1.0

Temperature Change

Socio-economic scenarios

Emissions

Projected Global Average Surface Warming and Sea Level Rise

Thermal Expansion	Temperature Change (oC at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)		Sea Level Rise (m at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
Case	Best estimate	Likely range	Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow
B1 Scenario	1.8	1.1 – 2.9	0.18 – 0.38
A1T Scenario	2.4	1.4 – 3.8	0.20 – 0.45
B2 Scenario	2.4	1.4 – 3.8	0.20 – 0.43
A1B Scenario	2.8	1.7 – 4.4	0.21 – 0.48
A2 Scenario	3.4	2.0 – 5.4	0.23 – 0.51
A1FI Scenario	4.0	2.4 – 6.4	0.26 – 0.59

Projection of Surface Temperature

Temperature Change

Future Changes in Climate

< Rainfall

< Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

< Decreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

< Temperature

< Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990 to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4)

< Sea level rise

< Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990 and the 2080s

< Extreme events

< Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation

Gangotri glacier has retreated more than 850 meters, in the last 25 years It has retreated more than 76 meters from 1996 to 1999

IPCC AR4: Key Points

n Asia, Africa, many Small Islands and mega deltas would be more vulnerable due to:

n Changes in annual average river runoff and water availability;

n Decrease at crop productivity in dry and tropical regions;

n Exposure of coastal areas and people to cyclone, storm surges, erosion, coastal subsidence and sea level rise;

n Ultimately it will impinge sustainable development of most developing and least developed countries in Asia and Africa.

n Warming of climate system is unequivocal;

n Many natural system are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases;

n Effects of regional climate change on natural and human environments are emerging – many are difficult to separate due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers;

n Global GHG emission will continue to grow over the next few decades;

n Even in a stringent mitigation world, a certain degree of impacts can not be avoided;

n Adaptive capacity is closely connected to social and economic development but is unevenly distributed across and within societies.

GBM River System Bangladesh is at the lower end of the Himalayan drainage ecosystem

n Bangladesh is the youngest delta: in the process of formation

n Bangladesh comprises only 8 percent of the GBM system and carry about 92 percent of water flow

n Average monsoon flow varies from 80,000 t0 140,000 cubic meter/sec

n This is only second to Amazon System

n 1.7 to 2.4 billion tons of sediments carried by the river system through Bangladesh

AAR 2004

River System of Bangladesh

AAR 2004

n There are 230 rivers in the country and 53 are transboundary in nature

n The transboundary rivers have been greatly interfered with

n 8 percent of area is water

n Virtually – Bangladesh is a conglomerate of islands

n 80 percent of the lands is floodplain with 140 million peoples

n Very little structurally solid rocks, mostly flexible mud

Flood Forecasting and Warning

n Flood forecasting: Model based

n One dimensional fully hydrodynamic model incorporated all major rivers and floodplain.

n This is linked to a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model that generates inflows from catchments within the country

n Some data

n Catchment area: 82,000 sq. km

n Total length of modelled rivers: 7270 km

n No. of catchments = 216

n Total number of forecast stations = 30

AAR 2004

Context of Vulnerability: spatial and temporal aspects

n Coast area of Bangladesh is very prone to cyclone and storm surges

n Coastal island and sea facing area are more prone compare to other coastal area

n Intensity of cyclone varies and damage as well

1 Meter Sea Level Rise

MAPS SHOWING EXISTING DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT IN THE YEAR 2030 & 2075

DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON)

MAPS SHOWING EXISTING DROUGHT, AND DROUGHT IN THE YEAR 2030 & 2075

Cyclone Sidr affects

Saline Zone of Bangladesh

Endogenous technologies for adaptation to vulnerability context: flood/wetland

n Baira preparation

n Collection of materials (water-hyacinth and other aquatic vegetation like ipomoea fistulosa)

n Making a floating bed (May to July)

n Crop selection

n Mostly vegetables, both summer and winter

n Cultivation on Baira platform

n Ball or cushion like structure

n Seedling raising

Endogenous technologies for adaptation to vulnerability context: flood/wetland

n Growing vegetables

n Seeding raising is more lucrative than vegetables growing

n People also grow vegetables for own consumption and sell surplus to the market

n On average profit is about 120 to 130 percent

Further Reference to Know More

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